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Mini-Volume Keywords: Why Targeting Small Search Volumes Makes Sense

April 12, 2023 Matt Goolding

This is a preview of an article I wrote for Grow and Convert, which you can find in full here.

Over the past few years, we’ve published various posts that explain how we prioritize content topics and target keywords based on conversion intent, not search volume, including: 

  • Our guide to pain point SEO, which explains our approach to coming up with topics that drive leads and signups. 

  • Our guide to SaaS content marketing and our case study about expanding from bottom-of-funnel content to top-of-funnel, which both talk about the importance of targeting bottom-of-funnel keywords with blog posts.

In all these articles, we share data showing how posts targeting high-conversion intent, bottom-of-funnel (BoF) topics have a really high conversion rate. And we show how they tend to outperform top-of-funnel (ToF) posts for conversions, despite getting less traffic. 

As a result, targeting BoF keywords has become the foundation of our content strategy for clients and our differentiation as a content agency.

But despite this data and our reasoning, we still get client pushback on proposed target keywords because SEO tools say the number of searches is low. Clients say they get that these BoF keywords may have higher conversion rates, but they’re worried that a high conversion rate is useless if only a few people are searching for it in the first place. 

So this got me thinking: Is there a way we can clearly demonstrate the value of low-volume keywords so we can open up new topic angles for our clients? 

The answer lies in the number of conversions they generate. I did this research and it revealed some pretty interesting data, which we’ll share in this post.

Key Takeaways: Why Are They Outperforming Estimates?

There was one overarching takeaway from our analysis: mini-volume keywords consistently generate way more traffic and conversions than back-of-the-envelope estimates predict. For example, people often calculate the value of keywords this way: 

  • This keyword gets 20 searches a month (estimate from SEO software).

  • Best case scenario, we’ll rank #1. This gets around 30% of clicks, so that’s only around 7 clicks a month.

  • Even if we get a 2% conversion rate from traffic to lead, that’s 0.14 leads a month. 

Conclusion: not worth it!

This logic seems sound but in practice we’ve noticed that this conclusion (“not worth it”) is wrong. As we’ll show with multiple examples below, ranking in the top few spots for keywords with 20 estimated searches or less are generating multiple conversions per month—often way more than the ToF posts with high traffic generate.

This is because of two reasons:

  1. Monthly search estimates consistently underestimate the amount of traffic a keyword will generate if you rank highly for it. Often by a lot.

  2. If you follow our Pain Point SEO process, you should only be going after mini-volume keywords that have really high conversion intent. Those will convert a lot higher than more typical top-of-funnel posts. 


Big picture: Taking a snapshot across 2 years and 17 of our clients, articles targeting sub-20 search volume generated more than 1,600 conversions for our clients (leads, signups, demos, etc. directly attributed to our content). But it’s hard to grasp what this means without digging into the strategy and examples, which we’ll do below….



… CONTINUE READING THIS POST ON THE GROW AND CONVERT BLOG

In Content Marketing

How have proponents of Scottish independence responded to the UK leaving the EU? Nicola Sturgeon’s discourse, 2016-2022

March 8, 2023 Matt Goolding

This is an adaptation of a paper written by Matt Goolding in December 2022, submitted to the University of Groningen as part of the Methodology & Research Practice course in the pre-master programme for MA International Relations.


How have proponents of Scottish independence responded to the UK leaving the EU? A chronology of Nicola Sturgeon’s discourse, 2016-2022

This article investigates how Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP), responded publicly to the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union. It follows Fairclough and Fairclough’s (2011) framework for analysing political discourse, integrating argumentation theory—specifically the concept of practical reasoning—with critical discourse analysis (CDA) to analyse Sturgeon’s speeches.

This reveals three distinct phases between 2016-2022 characterised by three dominant evolving arguments; for remaining in the EU’s Single Market and Customs Union, for holding a second EU membership referendum, and for permitting Scotland to conduct a second independence referendum.

On 23 June 2016, the people of the United Kingdom (UK) voted to leave the European Union (EU). Two years prior, in September 2014, the people of Scotland had voted to remain part of the UK. While it is perhaps unfair to describe the independence cause as ‘dormant’ after the 2014 result, there certainly seemed little prospect of any impending referendum re-run. The vote was portrayed by many as a ‘once in a generation opportunity’ (Paun, Sergeant, & Henderson, 2018). All this changed after the ‘Brexit’ referendum as it became clear that 62% of Scots voted to remain in the EU—but the UK as a whole voted to leave by 52% to 48%. 

This substantial gap reinvigorated the independence debate. On the morning of 24 June 2016, Scottish National Party (SNP) leader Nicola Sturgeon stepped up to deliver a speech; ‘The Scottish Parliament should have the right to hold another referendum if there is a significant and material change in the circumstances that prevailed in 2014, such as Scotland being taken out of the EU against our will. Scotland does now face that prospect—it is a significant and material change in circumstances—and it is therefore a statement of the obvious that the option of a second referendum must be on the table. And it is on the table.’ (Sturgeon, 2016). 

Negotiations between the UK and the EU continued until 31 December 2020, when Britain formally withdrew from the bloc. These talks were fraught with complications and delays, while securing a deal was made yet more challenging by the UK Parliament, where members repeatedly rejected the terms on offer. Throughout this four-year period, and in the two years since, Sturgeon has remained steadfast in her determination to force another Scottish independence referendum. 

This research tracks the prominence of this goal in her public speeches, investigates the themes present in her arguments, and maps out the key discursive constants and variables between June 2016 and December 2022.

Literature review

There is a wealth of literature investigating Scottish history, nationalism, and independence. Many of these accounts focus, to varying extents, on the reasons for, origins of, and characteristics of Scottish nationalism—and/or the causes of the 2014 independence referendum and/or its outcome. These accounts provide useful context; a background to the current demands for secession and the continued success of the SNP; a party with an explicitly pro-independence agenda which at the time of writing (January 2023) holds nearly half of the seats in the Scottish Parliament and three-quarters of all Scottish seats in the UK Parliament. 

I won’t offer a comprehensive overview of the historical literature on Scottish nationalism here, although I will introduce some of the more pertinent accounts in relation to my research question. First, I set the scene on the discernible characteristics of current Scottish nationalist identity; these are key to our understanding of Sturgeon’s discursive representations. Thereafter, I introduce substantial accounts of the SNP’s discourse in relation to independence and in relation to the UK leaving the EU.

I have consciously limited the content of this section to recent literature, due to the intensity of political upheaval in Britain over the past decade. This period was dominated by the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, the 2016 European referendum, and the Covid-19 pandemic. It was a tumultuous period in British politics; between 2016 and 2022, the UK had five different Prime Ministers. 

Political scientist Michael Keating (2017), for example, lays out the major discussion points that framed the first independence referendum in 2014; highlighting the debated issues of identity, economy, welfare, and external dimensions such as questions of EU and NATO membership (Keating, 2017). For Keating, the debate has largely been focused on valence issues; and in the 2014 referendum the different sides ‘did not, by and large, pitch radically different visions of Scotland’s future’ (Keating, 2017, p. 18). Rather, both sought to claim the middle ground. He suggests that the Scottish identity ‘is available to both unionists and to nationalists.’ (Keating, 2017, p. 17)—and that, as a result, identity-based appeals were available to both sides. According to Keating, the ‘us and them’ division was not emphasised during the 2014 campaigns. Rather, each side sought to ‘reconstruct the nation of Scotland or Britain with substantive social values’ (Keating, 2017, p. 18). For Keating, Scottish nationalism is an example of ‘modern’ nationalism, whereby the appeal is ‘not on particularism but on universal values, with the nation as the appropriate place to realize them.’ (Keating, 2017, p. 6). 

Charles King (2012) argues in a similar vein that independent (self-determinant) policy-making is the most important factor for independence proponents in Scotland, not ‘traditional’ nationalist factors such as territory or identity. Therefore, he argues the Scottish nationalism we see at the moment is ‘postmodern’ in nature. (King, cited in Duerr, 2015, p. 78). This echoes accounts from other scholars who argue that the SNP represents a ‘civic’ form of nationalism in Scotland; where membership is based on residency rather than ethnicity (Duclos, 2016). In fact, Darel. E. Paul claims that the SNP ‘and the wider Scottish nationalist movement stand as the world’s premier contemporary example of secessionist civic nationalism’ (Paul, 2020, p. 167). This civic nationalism, he argues, tends to be ‘oriented toward universalism’, characterised by ‘toleration, accommodation, and diversity’, and construed as ‘voluntarist, individualist, rational, political’ (Paul, 2020, p. 169). 

This stands in stark contrast to ethnic forms of nationalism, and while there is hotly-contested debate about the clarity of this ethnic-civic distinction (Paul, 2020), it is nonetheless essential to how the SNP perceives itself and represents its identity in the public arena (Duclos, 2016; Manley, 2022, Mycock, 2012; Paul, 2020). 

The distinction is relevant here because ‘a commitment to a self-defined civic form of nationalism requires from its leaders a civic performance of that nationalism’ (Paul, 2020, p. 168). It is this performance that is under investigation when we review Sturgeon’s speeches. 

Whether or not there are indeed ethnic underpinnings to the SNP’s style of nationalism, my assessment is based on Sturgeon seeing herself as a conscious agent of the pro-EU, pro-independence cause; projecting civic, liberal, and universal ideals. 

In her own words, ‘it shouldn’t be surprising that belief in Scottish independence—which is about self-government, not about ethnicity—goes hand in hand with a strong belief in internationalism and interdependence. National identity is not, and never should be, an exclusive concept.’ (Sturgeon, 2019).

There are two particularly influential works that must be cited here.

First, Thiec (2021) has tracked the impact of Brexit on the SNP’s overall independence narrative. She focuses on how the SNP painted the picture of ‘the sort of country that people in Scotland wanted to live in’ (Thiec, 2021, para. 34); contrasting this with representations of ‘broken Brexit Britain’ (Blackford, 2019, as cited in Thiec, 2021, para. 33). Thiec shows that the SNP consciously distanced itself from UK government policy and framed an independent EU-member Scotland as being part of a ‘family of independent nations’ (Thiec, 2021, para. 33). She highlights an emphasis on the positive aspects of immigration, both in the context of EU freedom of movement and in the context of Europe’s refugee crisis (Thiec, 2021). 

My research reveals similar patterns, though as I outline later in this section, I emphasise the operational and practical applications of these discursive themes. 

Another highly relevant—and duly inspirational in this respect—piece of literature is Stuart Whigham’s (2019) analysis of manifestos and policy documents from the SNP and its opponents—Scottish Labour, Scottish Conservative Party, and the Unionist Party. His work ‘examines the predominant narratives which emanated from party political discourse in relation to the 2014 Scottish independence referendum’ using Isabela Fairclough and Norman Fairclough’s (2011) framework for political discourse analysis (Whigham, 2019, p. 1212). 

This approach integrates argumentation theory—specifically the concept of ‘practical reasoning’—with critical discourse analysis (CDA). At the heart of their framework is the view that political discourse is an argument for or against a normative action (Whigham, 2019). Fairclough and Fairclough (2011) argue that ‘as long as normative claims and decisions are justified by reasons (even by ‘bad’ reasons, e.g. unacceptable, irrelevant or insufficient reasons), practical reasoning (and argumentation more generally) constitutes an integral part of political discourse.’ (Fairclough & Fairclough, 2011, p. 244). 

Practical reasoning, according to Fairclough and Fairclough, is embodied in practical arguments about ‘what to do’—it attempts to ‘motivate us (or give us good reasons) to act.’ (Fairclough & Fairclough, 2011, p. 245). It involves ‘arguing in favour of a conclusion (claim) that one should act in a particular way as a means for achieving some desirable goal or end.’ (Fairclough & Fairclough, 2011, p. 246). This emerges from a set of situations; ‘circumstantial premises’ that are chiefly presented as the problem that needs to be solved. (Fairclough & Fairclough, 2011, p. 244).

Figure 1

Fairclough and Fairclough’s proposal for the structure of practical arguments

From Political Discourse Analysis: A Method for Advanced Students (p. 48), by Fairclough, I., & Fairclough, N. 2012. Copyright 2012. Taylor & Francis Group.

Critics of this framework question the necessary relationship between these features—for example, the consideration of circumstances as always being a premise for an argument (Tseronis, 2013).

However, this is the lens through which I view my own research. The speeches delivered by Nicola Sturgeon are analysed here as a form of argumentation. And to demonstrate the prevailing narratives and discursive themes, I rely on Fairclough and Fairclough’s framework for conducting discourse analysis.

Turning to Whigham’s own research, he does not merely emphasise the problematic, unwanted, circumstances, but also that Scotland is presented as being ‘an ancient, outward-looking, wealthy and compassionate nation’ (Whigham, 2019, p. 1222). This is contrasted with the unwanted circumstance of an ‘unequal economic model’ that prioritises London (Whigham, 2019, p. 1222), and narratives about Scotland as a ‘submerged nation’ hampered by lack of political independence (Whigham, 2019, p. 1223).

He points to a core ideological value of the SNP being a belief in ‘Scotland’s future in Scotland’s hands’ (Whigham, 2019, p. 1223) and a ‘gradualist’ value emphasising the severing of political union without severing non-political ties (Whigham, 2019, p. 1224). Finally, this research uncovers the goal presented in SNP discourse as ‘the establishment of an independent, sovereign Scottish state’, with independence presented more as a means to an end than an end in itself (Whigham, 2019, p. 1225). 

Whigham concludes that ‘the SNP’s overarching emphasis on the premodern existence of an independent Scottish nation, and the concurrent resonance with ethnosymbolist rhetoric, acted as a central tenet of their attempts to normalise their ‘imaginary’ future independent Scottish state’ (Whigham, 2019, p. 1234). 

This paper builds on Whigham’s research in that it brings us up-to-date on pro-independence discourse in light of a tumultuous post-Brexit period. However, it is distinct from Whigham’s work in three ways: i) Whigham looks at multiple parties, while this paper focuses only on the SNP, ii) my dataset consists of a set of speeches, rather than party publications and manifestos, and iii) my circumstantial point of departure is the UK voting to leave the EU rather than an ongoing independence campaign, as it was in 2013-2014.

Research design and methodology

This research question is best answered using grounded theory—an interpretive, qualitative research approach.

This article is, above all, descriptive, in that it reveals the discursive themes present in Sturgeon’s arguments (in other words, her practical reasoning). I consciously do not attempt to build any sort of generalisable theory; my investigation is narrowly-focused and intended as an individual contribution to our understanding of nationalist discourse in a period of acute social disruption and political change. 

My work could be said to be rooted in the ‘linguistic turn’ within the social sciences (Neumann, 2002); I view language and discourse not as merely descriptive, but as a productive force. In this sense, I borrow from poststructuralist approaches—I perceive Sturgeon’s speeches to be performative; creating and reinforcing the legitimisation of a world where Scotland is better off as an independent nation within the EU. 

That said, there is one major foundational correlation to clarify; that is, the correlation between Brexit and the resurgent demand for a second Scottish independence referendum.

One could argue this as self-evident, but it’s still prudent to clarify the link. The aforementioned representation of a ‘material change in circumstances’ (SNP, 2016) since 2014 is one datapoint, while Nicola Sturgeon’s own words provide further evidence: ‘Before the 2014 referendum on independence, one of the key arguments made by those who opposed independence was that Scotland could only safeguard our place in the EU if we stayed in the UK. That argument turned out to be rather false.’ (Sturgeon, 2016).

As part of my research design, I considered which subject(s) and which material to analyse. Proponents of independence go beyond SNP leaders—from Members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs) and Members of the UK Parliament (MPs), to SNP party members, journalists, academics, and the public. The response to Brexit may vary substantially between these cohorts, depending on their viewpoints. Narrowing down to one person—a conscious leading agent of the pro-independence and pro-EU cause—provides a measure of control. 

Moreover, there is no shortage of source material. For example, Nicola Sturgeon’s speeches between June 2016 and December 2022 provide us with more than 350,0000 words. The conscious agency also factors into my decision to limit this research to pre-written speeches. While there is undoubtedly a wealth of insight to be found in debates, interviews, and media appearances, I am interested in what Sturgeon chooses to say in the most controlled, calculated, and stable conditions.

In accepting that practical reasoning and argumentation is inherent in political discourse (Fairclough & Fairclough, 2011) I argue that these monologues do provide reliable evidence of the public arguments employed by Sturgeon following the UK’s decision to leave the EU against Scotland’s will (Sturgeon, 2017).

Furthermore, it was important to take chronology into account here.

There was widespread uncertainty about the consequences of various exit arrangements and their subsequent impact on the UK economy. For example, the rejection by the UK parliament of Prime Minister Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement increased the likelihood of a ‘no-deal’ withdrawal, which was presented by leading economists as a damaging scenario (Wachowiak, 2020). This represents constantly-changing circumstances (i.e. new social contexts) for Sturgeon. After the introduction of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) on 1 May 2021, trade dropped significantly (OBR, March 2022; CEPR, July 2022) and created new circumstances.

For this reason, I intended to present my analysis in a year-by-year chronology. However, in line with the principles of interpretive research, I allowed patterns to emerge from the data. Analysing the texts actually revealed three distinct chronological phases through the timeline studied (2016-2022):

  1. First, the period immediately following the Brexit referendum, characterised by calls to remain within the Single Market and Customs Union, and for the UK government to respect the wishes of Scotland to remain in the EU—to seek a differentiated solution for Scotland. This is also characterised by highly emotive internationalist language. 

  2. The second phase is characterised by UK-EU negotiations, the realisation that a ‘hard’ Brexit is probable, and the possibility of the UK leaving the EU without a trade deal becomes a realistic possibility. At this point, the ‘goals’ and ‘claims for action’ emphasise the need for a second referendum once the terms of an exit deal are understood.

  3. The third phase, I argue, is characterised by Sturgeon’s argument that a second Scottish independence referendum is the only path forward; a time when exit terms certainly did not include Single Market and Customs Union membership, moving into the post-Brexit era with negative consequences of the UK leaving the EU beginning to appear.

Naturally, there is significant overlap.

For example, the demand for a second independence referendum has always been present. On 24 June 2016, Sturgeon explicitly states that ‘all options need to be on the table’ (Sturgeon, 2016). 

This research is therefore an attempt to reveal these emerging points of discursive emphasis. Furthermore, it is important to note that the ‘options on the table’ did not narrow in a strictly linear way towards a second Scottish independence referendum. The prospect of a second European referendum was not initially presented by Sturgeon in 2016; it was pitched as a new alternative route to protecting Scotland’s interests around 2018-2019.

My analytical process followed five steps: 

  1. Access and download the content of Nicola Sturgeon’s speeches from the Scottish Government’s online archive;

  2. Upload the text into the qualitative analysis software, Delve;

  3. Use an open coding process to break up the transcripts into consumable chunks;

  4. Use an axial coding process to manually match pieces of text to the five ‘structured features’ (Whigham, 2019, p. 1219) of political discourse (argumentation); circumstances, values, goals, means-goals, and the claims for action; 

  5. Reassess these coded snippets to then present the emergent themes.

In total, 133 speeches were processed using this method, and evaluated for variant textual references to Brexit and Scottish independence; though not all contained references to these themes and I omitted Sturgeon’s daily Covid-19 updates. 

A clear limitation of my approach is that I have only coded transcripts explicitly containing relevant themes to my research question. Therefore, implicit, yet highly-relevant, argumentation is certainly missing from this account. For example, a statement that Scotland succeeds in attracting inward investment (Sturgeon, 2020) is not explicitly pro-independence, yet it may conceivably form part of Sturgeon’s practical reasoning for Scotland to become independent (and/or part of the EU). 

This paper was written in January 2023, and therefore December 2022 was a natural end-point. Later research would benefit from extending this analysis into 2023 and beyond. 

Important note: In February 2023, Nicola Sturgeon announced her intention to step down from SNP leadership.

Discussion

What we generally see through 2016-2022 is an attempt by Sturgeon to appeal, on record, directly to the UK government. In fact, she states explicitly that her proposals are ‘aimed, first and foremost, at the UK government’ (Sturgeon, 2016). However, while the ‘claims for action’ below are dominated by actions the UK government should take, I argue that she is appealing to other audiences who have an indirect and/or long-term influence. This is made clear in April 2019, when Sturgeon says; ‘“With public sentiment nothing can fail. Without it, nothing can succeed.” These are the wise words of Abraham Lincoln.’ She continues, ‘If we are successful in further growing the support and the demand for independence… then no UK government will be able to deny the will of the people or stop that will being expressed.’ (Sturgeon, 2019). 

I argue that there is an implicit ‘claim for action’ running through all Sturgeon’s practical reasoning; that the people of Scotland should support Scotland in becoming an independent nation.

In itself, ‘support’ hardly sounds like a meaningful action. But when we take into account the utility of opinion polls in political argument (Gallup, 1965; Henn, 1997; Roper, 1985; Pack, 2022), support does have a function. Not only can it justify claims for action, but with discourse as a productive force, a new ‘state of affairs’ is created and reinforced by media representations of public sentiment in light of poll results.

1. Phase one: protecting Scotland’s interests

Note: Using a flowchart diagram in this blog framework renders the text too small to be legible. Therefore, I have presented each argumentation feature in individual sections. 

Circumstances:
The people of Scotland voted to remain in the EU (62%), yet they face losing their EU citizenship against their will. Unionists had argued in 2014 that Scottish independence would put EU membership at risk, yet the opposite was the case. The UK leaving the EU is a material change of circumstances as outlined in the SNP’s 2016 manifesto. There is a climate of uncertainty caused by an absence of leadership and a lack of advance planning. The UK is at the end of a long campaign characterised by hate, fear, negativity, and division. Scotland remains an outward-looking nation; a champion of diversity and internationalism. Scotland voted to remain, but 1 million in Scotland voted to leave the EU.


Values:
Scottish government working in good faith to influence negotiations between the UK and EU. Values of solidarity, cooperation, and democracy that underpin the EU. Scotland committed to the EU. Scotland as an open, inclusive, and welcoming nation. Diversity as a strength; aligning with EU fundamentals of freedom, democracy, rule of law, equality, and human dignity/rights. A commitment to internationalism and values of international cooperation. The Scottish government is putting the interests of the people first.


Goals:
To protect Scotland’s interests. To prevent the UK government opting for a ‘hard’ Brexit. To retain the benefits of EU membership for Scotland, specifically the Single Market and Customs Union. Scottish people retain the right to decide their future via another Scottish independence referendum if their interests are not protected.


Means-goals:
Scotland’s interests will be protected if we:

  • Encourage the UK government to remain in the Single Market and Customs Union

    • Highlight the the EU and the Single Market are not the same

    • Highlight economic costs of leaving the Single Market/Customs Union

  • Encourage the UK government to adopt differential solution for Scotland

    • Highlight differential arrangements in EU framework (e.g. Norway)

    • Highlight differential possibilities/necessities in Northern Ireland 

  • Encourage the UK government to permit Scottish independence referendum

    • Highlight the strong case/mandate for a Scottish independence vote

    • Highlight broken promises from 2014 regarding EU membership

    • Highlight democratic deficit between Scotland and UK (London)


Claims for action:
The UK government should retain Single Market and Customs Union membership, and embrace a ‘soft’ or ‘flexible’ Brexit. The UK government should permit the Scottish government to have input into negotiating positions for talks with the EU. The UK government should categorically protect the rights of EU citizens in the UK. The UK government should consider a differentiated Brexit solution for Scotland, like what is being considered for Northern Ireland. Proponents of Scottish independence should focus on building consensus rather than rushing into plans for an independence referendum.


Summarising phase one:

In this first phase, Nicola Sturgeon places emphasis on the need to ‘explore every option to protect Scotland’s interests’ (Sturgeon, 2016). The protection of interests is the stated overarching goal, and she portrays Scotland and/or the UK’s continued membership of the EU Single Market and Customs Union as the means by which they can achieve this goal. Sturgeon repeatedly demands that ‘Scotland’s voice’ (Sturgeon, 2016) be heard by the UK government, and that they be allowed to influence the negotiating position. 

The prospect of a second Scottish independence referendum is introduced in her first statement on Brexit, specifically in reference to the ‘material change of circumstances’ caused by Britain’s decision to leave the EU. This, outlined in the SNP’s manifesto from 2016 (SNP, 2016), is used to justify a second independence referendum being ‘on the table’ (Sturgeon, 2016). However, she is at pains to not appear as an opportunist; ‘Independence was not my starting point. That remains the case. Protecting Scotland's interests is my starting point. (Sturgeon, 2016). This reflects the stated values of working in ‘good faith’ (Sturgeon, 2016)—open to rational collaboration, compromise, and constructive engagement. 

Sturgeon is emotive regarding EU values, displaying overt internationalism; ‘Scotland is determined, despite Brexit, to remain an open, internationalist, outward looking nation.’ (Sturgeon, 2017). Civic, inclusionary, values are particularly prominent during this period.


2. Phase two: seeking a second EU membership referendum

Circumstances:
The people of Scotland voted to remain in the EU (62%). The UK government is ignoring/sidelining Scotland; Scotland as ‘an afterthought’ with an increasing democratic deficit that has been made more obvious by Brexit. Not treated as an equal partner. No consensus in the UK Parliament on Brexit terms; UK government adopting an extreme interpretation of the European referendum result. Prime Minister drawing red lines on Single Market and Customs Union, resulting in stalled negotiations and repeated extensions. Deals are fundamentally different to what was promised pre-referendum. Any form of Brexit damaging to Scotland. Claim of Right—the Scottish people as sovereign. SNP winning over half of the MEP seats on offer in Scotland; majority for remain parties. 


Values:
Scotland as an open and outward-looking, welcoming, European country. Internationalist values; participation in international institutions and maintaining close relations. European solidarity. Supporting internationalisation of Scottish businesses. Scottish government as being fully-engaged with all opposing views, both in Westminster and in the Scottish Parliament (re: Brexit and/or independence). Mature governance and debate. Seeking consensus, not confrontation; a contrast to Westminster. Honesty and transparency.


Goals:
To revoke Article 50 with immediate effect, and ensure the UK does not leave the EU without a deal. To guarantee a second European referendum based on the terms of any deal, with ‘remain’ on the ballot. To halt Brexit or mitigate the most damaging effects of Brexit for Scotland. Regarding independence; to ready the primary legislation ahead of a request for transfer of power from Westminster in the case that Scotland’s interests are not protected. Scotland to have increased powers, e.g. on immigration policy. For Scotland to have the opportunity to conduct a second Scottish independence referendum.


Means-goals:
Mitigating negative consequences of Brexit demands us to:

  • Encourage UK government to guarantee a second European referendum

    • Highlight right to vote on a deal which is different than anticipated

    • Highlight difference between voting on EU membership and Single Market

  • Encourage UK government to guarantee there will not be a no-deal Brexit

    • Highlight economic risks; use predictive reports and numbers

    • Highlight extremism in the UK Parliament (contrast vs Scottish)

    • Highlight referendum was not a mandate for a hard Brexit

  • Encourage the UK government to permit Scottish independence referendum

    • Highlight the strong case/mandate for a Scottish independence vote

    • Highlight the risk of a reversal of devolution (‘power grab’)

    • Highlight ‘deep’ democratic deficit between Scotland and UK (London)


Claims for action:
The UK government should call a second European referendum based on the terms of a deal. The UK government should not allow a no-deal Brexit under any circumstances; revoke Article 50 if this becomes the likely outcome. UK Prime Minister should immediately request an extension to Article 50 (after her proposed deal was defeated). The UK government should drop all ‘red lines’ impeding negotiations. The UK government and Scottish government should collaborate like 2014 to deliver a well-organised ‘gold standard’ Scottish independence referendum (to occur if Brexit proceeds). Scottish voters should vote for the SNP in European elections as a pro-EU support message. The Scottish Parliament should debate respectfully and seek common ground; thorough, thoughtful, and constructive conversations and a conscious aversion to division and polarisation.


Summarising phase two:

This second phase is dominated by Sturgeon’s call for a second European referendum; a demand that emerged towards the end of 2018 (The Guardian, 2018, 7 October), and first appeared in a recorded speech transcript in February 2019—‘the alternative option is now the preferred one for me and many others - a second referendum offering people the choice to remain in the EU’ (Sturgeon, 2019). This is in the context of Prime Minister Theresa May’s proposed deal being emphatically defeated (House of Commons Library, 2021) and the prospect of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit on 29 March 2019 becoming real (note: it was later extended). 

In June 2019, in a speech delivered in Brussels, Sturgeon says, ‘checking whether people across the UK still want to go ahead with Brexit is the obvious – to my mind - democratic course of action. So that is what my Government will argue for and we will work with others to try to bring that about.’ (Sturgeon, 2019). She portrays her role at this time as one of ‘persuading the UK not to leave the European Union, or at the very least, not leave the European Union in the most damaging way possible.’ (Sturgeon, 2019). The decision on Brexit, she argues, ‘should now return to the people’ (Sturgeon, 2019). 

The liberal, internationalist, and civic values remain constant during this period, too; but there is a more profound emphasis on consensus-seeking, common ground, and cooperation. Securing a second Scottish independence referendum remains a stated target for Sturgeon; ‘for Scotland the best solution for the long term is to become an independent nation.’ (Sturgeon, 2019).


3. Phase three: demanding a second Scottish independence referendum

Circumstances:
Brexit wreaking havoc on the UK (inc. Scotland) economy; closure of the French border to UK freight, labour scarcity, recruitment problems, interrupted supply chains, supermarket shortages, cost of doing business increasing. A far harder Brexit than was initially imagined. Inflation and economic crisis worse in the UK than elsewhere. Cost of living crisis. Inability to tackle economic issues due to lack of power. SNP democratic mandate gives Scottish people choice; election result of 2019 gave SNP majority in Scottish Parliament on a manifesto promising independence referendum. All options exhausted for influencing outcomes of the Brexit negotiations.


Values:
Honest and respectful debate. Cooperation and collaboration, not acrimony or division. A green, fair, progressive Scotland. Working together for the common good. Meeting the obligation to make positive change. Grown-up approach to politics. Equal partnerships.


Goals:
Get permission for a Scottish independence referendum from the UK government and/or the UK courts. Offer people an ‘informed choice’ on Scotland’s future. Make the Scottish Parliament independent of Westminster; able to tackle the cost of living crisis. Achieve independence. Defend the Scottish Parliament from UK ‘power grabs’. Scotland’s future in Scotland’s hands (self-determination). Build a better future for Scotland. Mitigate damage of Brexit while offering an alternative. Lead Scotland safely out of the Covid-19 pandemic.


Means-goals:
To ensure Scotland’s future, we must:

  • Demand second Scottish independence referendum

    • Highlight tangible current crises wholly or partially caused by Brexit

    • Highlight SNP’s democratic mandate from 2019 general election

    • Highlight poll numbers indicating majority support for independence

    • Highlight contrasts between Scottish and UK Governments/Parliaments

    • Highlight ‘deep’ democratic deficit between Scotland and UK (London)

    • Highlight undemocratic behaviour of Conservative government

    • Highlight benefits of independence; better, wealthier, fairer future


Claims for action:
The Scottish people should see the benefits of independence and support a referendum. The UK government should abide by the SNP’s mandate and permit a second independence referendum; no democratic justification for blocking it. The Scottish Parliament should do politics differently than the UK; mature debate and consensus-building. 


Summarising phase three:

This phase is characterised by Sturgeon’s shift to an all-out demand for a second Scottish independence referendum; coinciding with the UK-EU deal and the practical implementation of that deal.

Here we can see a return to similar discursive themes that Whigham (2019) revealed in his research, indicating a return by Sturgeon to highlight the practical benefits of independence and drawbacks of union; specifically with regards to crises caused by Brexit, but also in broader terms that are similar to the 2014 campaign. This is despite clear obstacles, for example the confirmation from the UK Supreme Court in November 2022 that the Scottish government requires the UK government’s permission to legally hold a referendum (The Supreme Court, 2022). 

The values being emphasised remain firmly within the confines of ‘civic’ definitions; this reinforces a consistent civic nationalist identity, which is further supported by a green agenda, with Glasgow hosting COP26 in October 2021. 

My expectations were to see a somewhat reserved narrative; reasoning zeroed on securing a referendum on democratic/legal grounds. What emerges is different; Sturgeon makes emotive appeals for self-determination. ‘Independence would give us the wherewithal to build a better, wealthier, fairer future. That is the prize we should now grasp.’ (Sturgeon, 2022)

Conclusion

In analysing Nicola Sturgeon’s speeches between 2016 and 2022, we have a front-row seat to watch the leader of a pro-independence (civic) nationalist party navigate an incredibly complex political and social situation. Sturgeon’s ambition for Scotland to be an independent nation is unquestionable, and the balance of the UK European referendum results provided an opportunity to further that ambition.

However, we can understand her discourse in the ‘first phase’ as tempered and measured; emphasis is placed on protecting Scotland’s interests by retaining the benefits of EU membership and influencing the UK negotiating position. An independence referendum is portrayed here as the ‘failsafe’ option.

Moving into the ‘second phase’ we are told that Scottish voices are not being listened to in Westminster, which is beholden to extremist influence. Now the emphasis changes to preventing a no-deal Brexit by revoking Article 50 or conducting a second referendum on EU membership once the terms of a deal are clear.

Finally, we arrive at the ‘third phase’; the UK has secured a deal and exited the EU. A second Scottish independence referendum is now presented as the one and only option to build a better future for Scotland in light of the negative consequences of Brexit.

This essay was written by Matt Goolding in January 2023.

Many thanks to Dr. Maryse Helbert, Lecturer in International Relations at the University of Groningen, for her guidance and feedback on this essay.


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In International Relations

Was the invasion of Iraq in 2003 presented by George. W. Bush as an act of limited war?

March 2, 2023 Matt Goolding

This is an adaptation of a paper written by Matt Goolding in December 2022, submitted to the University of Groningen as part of the Studying International Politics as a Social Science course in the pre-master programme for MA International Relations.


Was the invasion of Iraq in 2003 presented by George. W. Bush as an act of limited war?

This article uses qualitative discourse analysis methods to investigate whether the 2003 invasion of Iraq by a US-led coalition was presented to the public as an act of limited war. Speeches and presidential letters by George. W. Bush in March 2003 are analysed for themes relating to the intended objectives, means, and scope of military action. The data is viewed through the lens of established scholarly definitions of limited war.

This research finds that despite common characterisations, the invasion of Iraq was not coherently presented as an act of limited war at the time.

—

On 17 March 2003, George W. Bush addressed the public to warn of an unfolding crisis in Iraq: ‘Before the day of horror can come, before it is too late to act, this danger will be removed. The United States of America has the sovereign authority to use force in assuring its own national security.’ (Bush, 2003).

The assault began 48 hours later.

Whether or not Bush truly believed that Saddam Hussein was concealing weapons of mass destruction (WMD), the reason given by Bush and his administration for US military intervention in Iraq was outlined in crystal clear terms; Hussein’s regime threatened national and international security, and it needed to be overthrown.

These existential concerns had been presented to Congress the previous September alongside a request for broad executive authority (Purdum & Bumiller, 2002). This was rejected by Congress and replaced by permission reflecting the language of limitation: restraint, appropriateness, and self-defence—only authorising action against continued threats in the context of UNSC resolutions (148 Cong. Rec. H7189, 2002). Legally, it was supposed to be a limited war, waged with limited means, and in the pursuit of limited objectives.

Neither Bush nor his successor, Barack Obama, stayed within the confines of Congress’s provision. It goes without saying that the invasion of and occupation of Iraq was a grave error in every sense of the word—causing immense human suffering and further destabilising the region. While acknowledging this most serious factor, I should note in advance that this article isn’t written to judge the morality, legality, or execution of the war.

Instead, I aim to reveal the conflicting themes present in government discourse at the time of the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. We’ll see that on the one hand, the invasion was presented as restrained and controlled. And on the other, ‘complete and final victory’ (Bush, 2003) over Saddam Hussein was portrayed as essential for US and international security. It was an described as an existential threat to eliminate by any means necessary. as the US President said on 17 March 2003, ‘We will do everything to defeat it.’ (Bush, 2003) No limits.

The Iraq War is often described as a limited war (Stoker, 2019), and while this paper does not test the validity of this description, it does examine whether the invasion was presented by Bush in the terms of limited war.

Definitions and background to the ‘limited war’ concept

It is important to clarify key definitions before answering this research question.

First, I tend to use the term ‘invasion of Iraq’ and not ‘the Iraq War’. Justifications for the coalition’s presence in Iraq evolved over time, especially after WMD weren’t found. I’m not attempting to track these changes here. Instead, I investigate how Bush presented the act of invading Iraq. 

The differing interpretations of what characterises a limited—or unlimited—war are central here. Limited war is a contentious concept that has generated significant debate. These debates relate to if or how we can define limited war, whether or not limited war is truly possible (especially between nuclear-armed states), and whether or not a limited war is desirable on a normative or functional basis (Larsen & Kartchner, 2014). 

Here I will focus on the definitive debate. 

The recent work of Donald Stoker (2019) is both a gateway and a destination. Stoker systematically dissects the established scholarly definitions of limited war. He concludes that it is only the political objective that matters when we are subjecting a war to critical analysis, not the military means employed in the pursuit of that political objective. Here we should acknowledge Osgood’s seminal work, Limited War: The Challenge to American Strategy (1957). He defines limited war as one ‘in which the belligerents restrict the purposes for which they fight to concrete, well-defined objectives that do not demand the utmost military effort of which the belligerents are capable and that can be accommodated in a negotiated settlement.’ (Osgood, 1957, p. 1-2). He suggests that geographical scope, selective targeting, and ‘fractional commitment of human and physical resources’ are all characteristics (Osgood, 1957, p. 2).

Bernard Brodie (1959) argues that due to the destructive power and prevalence of nuclear weapons, and the risk of annihilation, limited war is something ‘quite new’ (Brodie, 1959, p. 311). In Brodie’s view, limited war is primarily the domain of the great powers where the decision to engage in the alternative—i.e., total unrestricted warfare—is materially available (Stoker, 2019). He criticises the definition of limited war as one with limited objectives only, pointing to World War One as an example where the aims were limited but the belligerents did not practise restraint (Brodie, 1959, p. 313). While he agrees that we ‘cannot have limited war without settling for limited objectives’ (Brodie, 1959, p. 313), Brodie argues that ‘we shall have to work very hard to keep it limited’ and thus we must focus on the means of achieving objectives, e.g. ‘the avoidance of strategic bombing of the major enemy’ (Brodie, 1959, p. 314). 

Lawrence Freedman (1994) argues that the criteria for identifying a limited war are threefold, i) geographical scope, ii) ends or objectives, and iii) means, i.e. the restrained use of military capabilities (Freedman, 1994, p. 201). As I’ll outline in more detail later, I see this definition as the most useful for the question in hand. 

Thomas Schelling, a contemporary of Osgood and Brodie, emphasises the role of tacit bargaining in setting limits in warfare. For him, the binary use or non-use of certain weapons or tactics is crucial for limiting a war in the absence of any explicit negotiation between foes (Schelling, 1960).

Michael Cannon (1992) posits that a new vision of ‘restrained’ warfare emerged in the 1950s in the context of the threat of a ‘total’ nuclear conflict with the USSR. He evaluates perspectives on ‘the process of limiting wars and their effects’ (Cannon, 1992, p. 97), and echoes Brodie in arguing that one of the ‘major constraints necessary’ to keep a war limited is ‘a willingness to settle for goals representing a considerable degree of compromise with the enemy’ (Cannon 1992, p. 74, Brodie, 1959, p. 308). Henry Kissinger is mentioned in Cannon’s work, whose book, Nuclear Weapons and Foreign Policy, established the concept of limited nuclear war—the idea that nuclear warfare escalation could be controlled and that nuclear weapons could be deployed tactically (Vardamis, 1978, p. 89). 

Jeffrey Larsen and Kerry Kartchner suggest that a nuclear war may be considered limited in ‘one or more of multiple dimensions’ (Larsen & Kartchner, 2014, p. 5) including the numbers and types of nuclear weapons used, the scope and geographical area, the duration, the targets chosen, and the objectives—‘pursuing an outcome that is something less than the complete annihilation of the other side's armed forces or its government.’ (Larsen & Kartchner, 2014, p. 5). They summarise; ‘Limited nuclear war is a conflict in which nuclear weapons are used in small numbers and in a constrained manner in pursuit of limited objectives.’ (Larsen & Kartchner, 2014, p. 6). The question of whether a ‘limited nuclear war’ is possible is an alluring sidetrack, but not the focus of this paper. Suffice it to say that what connects all these accounts is that they accept the means used as limited war criteria. They value the conduct of war, for example ‘the levels of force and the types of forces employed’ (Cannon, 1992, p. 97), and see limited war as being in contrast to the alternative ‘total’, ‘general’, or ‘absolute’ war—a concept popularised by Clausewitz (Stoker, 2019). 

In contrast, Stoker argues ‘wars cannot be defined by the means, because this is a nebulous, subjective factor and thus does not pass the test of building upon solid ground’ (Stoker, 2019, “Total War” and Other Terms That Mean Nothing section, para. 6). He argues, convincingly, that the political objectives sought provide solid ground from which we can assess a war. I am sympathetic to Stoker’s approach to measuring the limitedness of a war retrospectively, but in the act of justifying and presenting military action to a public, I argue political leaders do not stick to objectives. They communicate intentions for the means (e.g. troop volumes) and also outline scope in terms of geography, duration, and intended targets. 

Therefore, I view Bush’s speeches primarily through the lens of Lawrence Freedman’s three criteria for identifying limited war: objectives, means, and scope—though I admit to deploying other reflections on each specific criterion alongside these.

What does the literature say?

The previous section of this paper reviews popular literature on the concept of limited war. However, it is also necessary to review literature discussing, (i) the presentation, or ‘framing’ of the invasion and/or the Iraq War, and (ii) limited war theory applied to, or in reference to, the Iraq War. On the topic of the framing of the conflict, there is no shortage of material examining how the Bush administration created the opportunity to intervene.

Paul Paolucci (2009), for example, exposes a conscious policy of information management, strategic ambiguity, omissions and misleading juxtapositions, false denials, intimidation of critics, and the hiding of true policy goals. He finds that ‘the media failed to stimulate debate and check government power, though there was no lack of available scandal to report.’ (Paolucci, 2009, p. 880).

Abid and Manan (2016) show how pre-war Iraq was ‘perceived as a hostile country with WMDs and ties to Al-Qaida’ in the context of Bush’s portrayal of ‘Us, liberators and salvagers, and Them, terrorists and dictators’—but after the invasion, Iraq was presented as ‘a democratic country and an example of successful democracy to all dictatorships in the region.’ (Abid & Manan, 2016, p. 723). 

Chaim Kaufmann (2004) focuses on the Bush administration’s ‘threat inflation’ discourse in the buildup to war characterised by ‘1) claims that go beyond the range of ambiguity that disinterested experts would credit as plausible, (2) a consistent pattern of worst-case assertions over a range of factual issues that are logically unrelated or only weakly related-an unlikely output of disinterested analysis; (3) use of double standards in evaluating intelligence in way that favors worst-case threat assessments; or (4) claims based on circular logic.’ (Kaufmann, 2004, p. 8-9). 

Richard. B. Miller (2008) categorises the Bush administration’s positioning of the need for war as ‘preemptive or preventive self-defense, law enforcement, and defense of human rights’ (Miller, 2008, p. 65). He finds that despite the rationale put forward by the Bush administration, the Iraq War lacked a just cause ‘for empirical and moral reasons’ (Miller, 2008, p. 65). Above all, what many scholars agree is that the invasion was consistently presented by the Bush administration as necessary, and the war as just (Fisher & Biggar, 2011).

This article will not revisit the justifications for the legitimacy of military action. That is a well-trodden road. Rather, as there has been comparatively little written about the stated objectives, means, and scope of the invasion, this is where my research focuses its attention.

It is sometimes claimed that the public was ‘sold a limited war’ (Higgins, 2019). This article contests that idea. Again, the question of whether the Iraq War was positioned as a limited war has not been categorically answered—and indeed, the idea that it was a limited war is pervasive—yet rarely substantiated. 

One attempt is made by Bruce Ackerman and Oona Hathaway (2011). They call the US’s 1798 ‘Quasi War’ against France as ‘the first limited war’ and cite contemporary judicial statements characterising it as a ‘partial war’ which is ‘limited in place, in objects, and in time’ (Ackerman & Hathaway, 2011, p. 453-454). This establishes their foundation for examining the Iraq War, where Bush ‘transformed a well-defined and limited war into an open-ended conflict operating beyond constitutional boundaries.’ (Ackerman & Hathaway, 2011, p. 447).

Sam Lebovic (2015) takes a leap in his account of limited war in the age of ‘total media’ in that the idea of the Iraq War as a limited war is assumed, or at least left unsubstantiated. Spencer D. Bakich offers us just one paragraph in Success and Failure in Limited War (2014) to define a limited war; ‘Despite the label, limited wars are big events. These wars, fought with restraint but at a high level of intensity, are a prominent feature of international political life.’ (Bakich, 2014, p. 1). 

To some extent, all these accounts take the ‘limitedness’ of the Iraq War as a given.

Outlining my research design and methods

This is an interpretative, qualitative discourse analysis of 18 speeches delivered by George. W. Bush in March 2003. Sources were downloaded from The White House archive and uploaded into qualitative analysis software, Delve. I operationalised Freedman’s three criteria of limited war when structuring my category codes; objectives, means employed, and scope. 

The material was meticulously analysed to identify and code statements relating to each category, which were then reassessed to identify specific subcategories.

A two-tier view of objectives emerged from this analysis:

  1. Practical (military-political) objectives, pertaining to ‘what needs to be done’—e.g. disarmament, and;

  2. Ideological objectives, pertaining to broader goals—e.g. ensuring freedom and security.

In coding the means employed I recorded statements about troop volumes, weapons, or tactics; intensity, restraint, and/or levels of force (to be) used. I sought portrayals of how the military action is (to be) conducted.

Finally, in coding the (intended) scope of military action, I identify four categories:

  1. Geographical

  2. Duration

  3. Selective targeting (Osgood, 1957), and;

  4. Levels of sacrifice, which I suggest is a vital expectation for any leader to set when committing a state’s military to war. 

Here it must be acknowledged that using Freedman’s three criteria as ‘a lens’ risks omitting statements that do not fit the mould, and/or the shoehorning of certain statements into certain categories.

In this sense, it could be argued that my research is not wholly ‘grounded’ because it puts a set of definitions about limited war to operational use.

However, it is important to note two things:

  • This is primarily a descriptive account; it does not seek to generalise or build broader theory, and;

  • The central research question emerged from a grounded curiosity about how the Iraq invasion was presented at the time. The lack of coherence in this message subsequently emerged as a theme once initial research had begun.

Furthermore, the primary goal of this research is not to vindicate any particular definition of limited war. I am ambivalent to this. Instead, I aim to describe how the Iraq invasion was presented.

Indeed, if we were to accept Stoker’s alternative definition (political objectives alone describe whether a war is limited) the same conclusive arguments remain. 

Quantitative methods were also used to support my qualitative data-gathering, and this is reflected in my discussion in the form of word frequency metrics. Of course, word frequency has little meaning without understanding the social context of those words, and therefore each numerical value featured here has been verified as relevant to this account through manual qualitative investigation. 

In terms of data collection, I have limited my sources to Bush’s speeches and presidential letters during March 2003 that are recorded in The White House archive.

This is a snapshot in time but I argue that it is a crucial period for two key reasons:

  • Before the UN weapons inspectors’ 7 March report, the stated goal was peaceful disarmament. Military action was presented as a ‘last resort’ (Bush, 2003). Here we see military action escalating from possible, to inevitable, to ongoing. Bush is urgently tasked with justifying and contextualising it in the moment. 

  • March 2003 is a time of uncertain outcomes. Thus, we are party to Bush’s presentation of the ‘ideal’ objectives, means, and scope. 

For reasons of brevity, I omit statements made by other leading figures such as Colin Powell, Donald Rumsfeld, and Condoleezza Rice. These would undoubtedly make for interesting reading, as would the comparison of prominent discourses in each of the coalition nations. But for now, I’ll only be focusing on the words of the US President within a tight timeframe. 

Analysis and discussion: was the invasion of Iraq presented by George. W. Bush as an act of limited warfare?

1. Objectives

Let’s first look at stated objectives as they emerged from the material, in two tiers:

  1. Ideological objectives and;

  2. Practical objectives

When it comes to ideological objectives, Bush’s speeches during March 2003 contain themes of ‘liberation’ (liberty, liberation) which features 36 times in 18 speeches, ‘peace’ (peace, peaceful) which features 76 times, freedom (freedom, free) which features 71 times, and ‘security’ (security, secure) which features 47 times. Curiously, the theme of ‘democracy’ is not central to Bush’s discourse in March 2003. Variations on this theme (democracy, democratic) only appear 6 times, although Bush makes regular pejorative reference to Hussein as a dictator—the theme (dictator, dictatorship, tyrant, tyranny) appearing 40 times.

Bush does make explicit the objective to ‘support a transition to democracy in Iraq’ (Bush, 2003) and for ‘development of a free-market democracy in Iraq’ (Bush, 2003). However, he advocates for a level of restraint, saying the US ‘has no intention of determining the precise form of Iraq's new government. That choice belongs to the Iraqi people. Yet we will ensure that one brutal dictator is not replaced by another.’ (Bush, 2003). 

When we look at the stated practical objectives, the central theme is ‘disarmament’. We see variations on ‘disarm’ (disarm, disarming, disarmament, disarmed) feature 95 times during March 2003. This is the most recurring theme present, featuring in every speech used in this dataset, echoing language used in the UN Security Council Resolution 1441—the oft-cited ‘final opportunity’ offered to Iraq to comply with (UNSC, 2002). 

Another central theme in Bush’s practical objectives is ‘regime change’—the removal of Hussein from power. This theme also emerges in every transcript. For example, leaving no ambiguity, Bush says: ‘We will be changing the regime of Iraq, for the good of the Iraqi people.’ (Bush, 2003) and ‘Saddam Hussein will be removed, no matter how long it takes.’ (Bush, 2003). In total, ‘regime change’ as a practical objective theme appears 53 times across 18 speeches in various forms: for example, removing Saddam from power, freeing/liberating the people of Iraq, and ending dictatorship.

Are these limited objectives? 

By itself, ‘disarmament’ could be considered a limited objective by all definitions. However, in Bush’s own words, disarmament could not occur without regime change: ‘If we go to war, we will disarm Iraq. And if we go to war, there will be a regime change’ (Bush, 2003) and ‘no nation can possibly claim that Iraq has disarmed. And it will not disarm so long as Saddam Hussein holds power.’ (Bush, 2003). 

The stated objective here is to depose the Iraqi regime by force, with disarmament as the outcome.

This, according to Stoker’s definition (echoing Clausewitz’s view that wars are either to overthrow the enemy or to attain bargain positions for negotiations) (Bellinger, 2020), cannot be considered a limited objective because ‘wars are fought for regime change or something less than this’ (Stoker, 2019, Are We At War? section, para. 10). Furthermore, in light of Hussein’s ‘12 years of denial and defiance’ (Bush 2003), Bush is uncompromising: ‘Against this enemy, we will accept no outcome but complete and final victory’ (Bush, 2003). Compromise is a key component of limited war for Freedman, Brodie, and Cannon. Although the term ‘final victory’ (Bush, 2003) is nebulous, the theme of compromise, negotiation, or settlement is not present in any of Bush’s discourse after the UN report on 7 March. On the contrary, Bush had ‘one objective in mind: That's victory.’ (Bush, 2003). 

2. Means employed

If we now look at means employed to achieve the objectives, analysis shows Bush as being ambiguous. Troop numbers are not explicitly mentioned in March, and nor are the types of weapons in the field. However, on 17 March, Bush says ‘the only way to reduce the harm and duration of war is to apply the full force and might of our military, and we are prepared to do so.’ (Bush, 2003). He also confirms the US to be ‘meeting the danger today with our Army, Navy, Air Force, Coast Guard, and Marines.’ (Bush, 2003) and says on 22 March that it ‘will not be a campaign of half-measures’ (Bush, 2003). 

Bush labels the invasion as a ‘massive ground assault’ which is the start of a ‘broad and concerted campaign’ (Bush, 2003). I argue that this ‘massive ground assault’ using the ‘full force’ of the US combined forces, committed to ‘no half-measures’ in the pursuit of ‘final victory’—i.e. the deposition of the Iraqi government—is in no way reflective of limited means. It is undoubtedly the language of an unlimited war. 

Statements such as ‘Every measure will be taken to win it.’ and ‘The United States and other nations did nothing to deserve or invite this threat. But we will do everything to defeat it’ (Bush, 2003) may be vacuous and hyperbolic in the real world, but they indicate that Bush was keen to frame a successful invasion as an all-means-necessary endeavour. 

During March, Bush makes 17 references to US forces protecting ‘innocent’ civilian lives, claiming that US troops show ‘kindness and respect to the Iraqi people’, going to ‘extraordinary lengths to spare the lives of the innocent.’ (Bush, 2003). He contrasts this with the behaviour of Iraqi troops: ‘Iraqi civilians attempting to flee to liberated areas have been shot and shelled from behind by Saddam's thugs.’ (Bush, 2003).

This, as we now know, was not an accurate assessment (Hedges & Al-Arian, 2009), but concern for the Iraqi people was regularly presented by Bush as a feature of American restraint—and indirectly implies that the most indiscriminate destructive weapons will not be used. 

I expected to discover strong themes of precision and accuracy in these speeches—evidence of Bush presenting a ‘surgical’ approach to warfare using limited means. However, this is not present at all in the discourse. 

To summarise: Bush does not present much in the way of detail regarding means employed by US forces. He makes sweeping statements about using force without compromise. These statements are certainly not restrained in nature, yet they tend to offer little substance or depth. The care for civilians could however be perceived as an example of restraint because of the potential alternative; total indiscriminate destruction.

3. Scope

Clearly, the objective Bush presents is for Iraq to disarm, and he makes no mention of any targets outside Iraq’s borders. However, he does suggest that the Iraqi people can ‘set an example to all the Middle East of a vital and peaceful and self-governing nation.’ (Bush, 2003)—and states that the US goal is peace ‘for all the peoples of the Middle East.’ (Bush, 2003). Any ‘scope creep’ to the region is related to ideological objectives, but they are sparse and without substance or specificity. 

Targeting is not a major theme in the discourse, perhaps for reasons of operational security. However, on 19 March, Bush announces that ‘Coalition forces have begun striking selected targets of military importance to undermine Saddam Hussein's ability to wage war.’ (Bush, 2003). He also communicates limits on who the targets are: ‘Our enemy in this war is the Iraqi regime, not the people who have suffered under it.’ (Bush, 2003). Paired with the stated aim of protecting civilian lives, this suggests limitation both in terms of scope but also in terms of means employed. 

In terms of duration, at no point in March does Bush indicate that the invasion is the start of a short war. In fact, at every opportunity (13 times in March) he cautions against this assumption. Statements such as ‘The fighting is fierce and we do not know its duration.’ (Bush, 2003), ‘The path we are taking is not easy, and it may be long.’ and ‘It is evident that it's going to take a while to achieve our objective.’ (Bush, 2003) are typical of the messaging around duration—though he does also make clear that American troops will leave ‘as soon as their work is done’ (Bush, 2003). 

Finally, what did the public expect in terms of the scope of their sacrifice? 

Bush does not provide specifics. He talks in sweeping terms about sacrifice without explicitly mentioning casualties; for example, ‘War has no certainty, except the certainty of sacrifice.’ (Bush, 2003).

What is clear is this: the US public is not expecting to mobilise for a ‘total war’ economy. They are not being warned about a tangible change to their everyday lives. In this sense, the invasion of Iraq is presented as a limited military—rather than societal—endeavour; evidenced when Bush says, ‘Our entire nation appreciates the sacrifices made by military families.’ (Bush, 2003).

Conclusion and final comments

Overall, I argue that the invasion of Iraq was not coherently presented as an act of limited war, regardless of which definition we accept as the most convincing. 

The objectives were fundamentally unlimited and non-negotiable; full disarmament via regime change. The means, too, did not contain clear limitations. Bush did not claim that it was a ‘fractional commitment of human and physical resources’ (Osgood, 1957, p. 2). Quite the contrary—he emphasised the use of ‘full force and might’ of the military (Bush, 2003). 

We can infer from Bush’s stated concern for Iraqi civilians that the use of the most destructive and indiscriminate weapons (i.e. nuclear weapons) were off the table. This could be perceived as real restraint, but social norm constraints would arguably make ‘breaking the nuclear taboo’ (Stoker, 2019) so consequential as to render it a non-option. 

The scope was presented as geographically limited, although no tangible limits were placed on duration. Expectations of ongoing sacrifice were stoked, yet limited to the military and their families. The theme here is a lack of coherence and consistency. 

For Bush, the coalition was to be all-powerful and unlimited in pursuit of victory, yet also exemplary of American justice and restraint.

***

This essay was written by Matt Goolding in December 2022.

Many thanks to Dr. Tjalling Halbertsma, Director International of the Centre for East Asian Studies at the University of Groningen, for his guidance and feedback on this essay.


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In International Relations

Pax Britannica: how venerating British hegemony obscures real colonial harms

March 1, 2023 Matt Goolding

This is an adaptation of a paper written by Matt Goolding in January 2023, submitted to the University of Groningen as part of the Theory of International Relations course in the pre-master programme for MA International Relations.


Pax Britannica: how venerating British hegemony obscures real colonial harms

This article critiques the term ‘Pax Britannica’ and its conceptualisation and use in International Relations. As a description of British dominance and global influence between 1815 and 1914, ‘Pax Britannica’ is often uncritically applied. This article highlights imperialist tropes that are reinforced and reproduced as a result.

British imperialist, Joseph Chamberlain, first popularised the term ‘Pax Britannica’ when he used it to describe how Britain’s imperial rule was ‘pacifying’ India (Matzke, 2011, p. 1). Since then, it has been used widely in academic and media circles to describe the period between 1815 and 1914; a period characterised by Britain’s military and economic dominance, a relentlessly-expanding British empire, and new ‘institutional formations’ in international relations (Buzan & Lawson, 2013, p. 620).

‘Pax Britannica’ has taken root in the world of International Relations (IR) in particular. It is often perceived as an example of successful single-state hegemony. While the strict definition of hegemony as a concept is hotly contested, the debate broadly converges on the scenario where one dominant nation state exercises power over others in the international system (O’Brien & Pigman, 1992, p. 90). 

In a literal sense, the latin term ‘Pax Britannica’ translates to ‘British Peace’ (Watts, 2007), and while some suggest that the ‘Pax’ more accurately reflects the concepts of law and order (Rodger, 2016), 1815-1914 is certainly seen by many as a period of relative peace (Gilpin, 1981). This attracted the attention of early IR ‘pioneers’ as the discipline emerged in the twentieth century, and it continues to intrigue scholars to the present day. In fact, IR theorists of varying persuasions see this ‘British Peace’ as a rare case study of single-state hegemony (Clark, 2011) and therefore a key body of evidence for theories of economy, liberal politics, and international (in)stability.

However, there’s an elephant in the room here. What many of these accounts fail to confront is that ‘Pax Britannica’ is deeply entwined with the brutalities of imperial conquest. The term’s origin—in reference to the ‘pacification’ of India—is one obvious hint. But the relationship doesn’t end there.

Britain’s dominant position was forged from being ‘the imperial center of an Atlantic economy nurtured by the raw materials wrought from coercive practices’  (Buzan & Lawson, 2013, p. 621). In other words, Britain’s strength, indeed its purported hegemony, was inseparable from its empire.

And that empire was far from peaceful. 

What’s more, this ‘peace’ was actually a ‘system of force’ from which ‘devolved the benefits of peace’ (Gough, 2014, p. 2). Those benefits were not universal. Not only was this peace confined to Europe, but it actually created the conditions for European powers to exercise violence elsewhere. Their warmongering was directed towards so-called “weaker peoples” ‘in the periphery’ (Fettweis, 2022, p. 183, emphasis added). 

This article doesn’t systematically critique the idea of hegemony, though I do have my doubts about the moral value of a system which is underpinned by dominance and subjugation. 

Instead, I want to pick apart some leading representations of ‘Pax Britannica’—partly in the context of hegemonic theory. I’ll be applying a postcolonial lens, and I’ll borrow from poststructuralist ideas about discourse being a productive force that reinforces power relations.

I have an agenda here; to get us to think more carefully about the language we use.

What do people say about hegemony and Pax Britannica?

It’s easy to get sidetracked into a discussion about the relationship between hegemony and empire. Does one need the other? How are they similar, and how are they different? This isn’t my focus here. Neither do I want to investigate whether 1815-1914 was actually a British hegemonic order or not. This is up for debate; and it’s an argument which is largely based on technicalities and semantic definitions.

Instead, three premises underpin my argument:

  1. Britain is perceived by many as ‘the world’s preeminent military and economic power in the nineteenth century’ (Go, 2012, p. 4).

  2. The British empire unquestionably expanded during the nineteenth century (Said, 1978; Porter & Louis, 1999).

  3. The term ‘Pax Britannica’ (and its conceptual foundation) is commonly used to denote a peaceful, stable, and formative period in international politics.


Next, I’ll take a deep-dive into some of the theories around ‘Pax Britannica’ and how this time period has been misconceived and continues to be misrepresented. We’ll learn that this isn’t a benign issue; in fact, the veneration of ‘Pax Britannica’ and the omission of its imperial underpinnings silences the harms of colonialism and reproduces harmful tropes.

International Relations theory and ‘Pax Britannica’

Liberals and realists typically aren’t happy partners; they tend to have very different views of the world. But in the context of hegemony, some liberals and realists actually converge. More specifically, I’m referring to their bond within Hegemonic Stability Theory (HST). 

Hegemonic Stability Theory (HST), Realism, and ‘Pax Britannica’

In essence, HST proponents believe that ‘international economic openness and stability is most likely when there is a single dominant state’ (Webb & Krasner, 1989, p. 183). Inspired by Charles Kindleberger—an internationalist and liberal economist who helped implement the Marshall Plan—Robert Gilpin and Stephen Krasner—both are considered to be realists, by the way—developed HST with the view that a hegemonic distribution of power allows the dominant state to ‘promote liberalization without jeopardizing essential security objectives.’ (Webb & Krasner, 1989, p. 184).

They argue that Britain was indeed a hegemon in the late nineteenth century, and this situation ‘provided stability and encouraged liberalization in the international economy.’ (Webb & Krasner, 1989, p. 183).

According to Robert Gilpin, ‘the close association between political hegemony and economic liberalism in the modern world began with the political and economic rise of Great Britain.’ (Gilpin, 1984, p. 295). As a leading producer of tradable goods, he suggests middle-class elites in Britain ‘judged the promotion of an open world economy to be in their national interest.’ (Gilpin, 1984, p. 295). Gilpin argues that the two ‘crucial elements’ of a liberal world economy—political hegemony and economic efficiency—‘came together in the guise of the Pax Britannica.’ (Gilpin, 1984, p. 295).

Generally, Gilpin sees the dominance of a liberal hegemonic power, or ‘liberal powers able and willing to manage and enforce the rules of a liberal commercial order’ (Gilpin, 1984, p. 296) as key to a liberal international economy. 

In his analysis of state power and international trade, Stephen Krasner argues that ‘openness is most likely to occur during periods when a hegemonic state is in its ascendancy’ (Krasner, 1976, p. 323) and leans on Britain in the 1800s as evidence for this. He doesn’t abandon Realism’s idea that states operate with rational self-interest; claiming that increased openness in the structure of international trade suited Britain’s national interest and was supported domestically by ‘rising industrialists’ (Krasner, 1976, p. 335). ‘For the first three-quarters of the nineteenth century,’ he writes, ‘British policy favored an open international trading structure, and British power helped to create it.’ (Krasner, 1976, p. 336).

Another contributor to HST is Robert Keohane. With arguments drawn from the ‘institutionalist tradition’ (Keohane, 1984, p. 9), he suggests that hegemony can promote cooperation, but ‘there is little reason to believe that hegemony is either a necessary or sufficient condition for the emergence of cooperative relationships.’ (Keohane, 1984, p. 31). He questions whether Britain’s hegemony actually played a causal role in increased international cooperation, and posits a complex relationship between hegemony and international cooperation; one where coercion is also a factor (Keohane, 1984, p.  46).

Jack Snyder, a ‘defensive’ realist, (Taliaferro, 2000) laments the ‘self-punishing overexpansion’ of industrialised powers (Snyder, 1991, p. 9) and criticises the idea that security is gained through continuous expansion and offensive action; a perspective held by ‘aggressive’ realists (Snyder, 1991, p. 12).

For Snyder, the British empire lasted so long because it resisted the temptation to overstretch, employing tactics of appeasement as well as material threat (Snyder, 1991). He highlights domestic factors, arguing; ‘the democratic element in the British political structure acted for the most part as a moderating force’ meaning ‘narrowly self-interested imperialist cartels’ couldn’t develop (Snyder, 1991, p. 154). 

Snyder writes that Britain’s conquests 1830-60 were ‘quite rational’ due to a favourable cost-benefit ratio (Snyder, 1991, p. 156). At this time, ‘rapid industrialization was making imperial expansion necessary and possible for Britain.’ (Snyder, 1991, p. 156). Sadly for Snyder, Britain’s ‘costly overextension in Africa’ and the resulting international isolation (Snyder, 1991, p. 210) was a mistake because it ‘provoked balancing coalitions’ and meant Britain got ‘stuck in quagmires in the hinterland’ (Snyder, 1991, p. 8).

Snyder’s recommendation seems to be: empire, just not too much empire. According to him, stable hegemony is maintained through restraint and the appropriate amount of expansion.

Snyder paints a picture of a self-reflective, sensible, and measured type of imperialism; one paying ‘close attention to balance of economic costs and benefits.’ (Snyder, 1991, p. 157).

And similarly, for the ‘grandfather’ of Classical Realism, Hans Morgenthau, this period of British hegemony can be considered as conservative in nature. It represented a uniquely stable status quo—an enduring cohesion characterised by the ‘deflection of rivalries’ to the ‘periphery’—where there were only ‘politically empty spaces’ (Morgenthau, 1948, as cited in Guilhot, 2014).

Power Transition Theory / Power-Shift Theory

The proponents of ‘power transition theory’ or ‘power-shift’ theories, such as A. F. K. Organski, are considered to form one branch of the realist tree, yet there are major differences in outlook from the ‘classical’ realist balance-of-power school. For example, this branch holds that the international system is not anarchical, but hierarchical. And in this setting, power preponderance ‘creates a much more peaceful structural condition.’ (Danilovic, 2002, p. 77).

‘Pax Britannica’ and ‘Pax Americana’ (post-1945) are held up as examples of a dominant state being satisfied with its position. And, apparently, ‘satisfied states do not, in general, initiate conflicts’ (Danilovic, 2002, p. 78).

This concept of ‘satisfaction’ is reflected in the work of Kenneth Waltz, too. With states being rational actors maximising security (rather than power), he argues that instead of pursuing hegemony, states should be content with the ‘appropriate amount’ of power to ensure security (Waltz, 1989, p. 40).

This is in stark contrast to fellow neorealist, the controversial John Mearseimer. He encourages states to pursue maximum (regional) hegemonic power and conduct what he calls ‘offshore balancing’ (Mearsheimer, 2001) to maintain their regional power balance. This strategy, Mearsheimer argues, was successfully executed by Britain in the 1800s. And as a result, Britain was able to freely pursue its interests outside Europe (Mearsheimer, 2001).

Liberal internationalist, institutionalist, and other views

John Ikenberry, who takes a liberal internationalist view, argues that after settling the Napoleonic wars in 1815, ‘Great Britain pursued an institutional strategy aimed at establishing formal processes of consultation and accommodation among the postwar great powers.’ (Ikenberry, 2001, p. 81).

Like Snyder, Ikenberry seems to delight in British restraint and cooperation—a ‘general pattern of compromise’ fostered by Britain (Ikenberry, 2001, p. 97) and the creation of a noble coalition tasked with ‘order creation’ in Europe (Ikenberry, 2001, p. 116).

This leadership was only possible due to Britain’s power, and Ikenberry cites Paul Kennedy (1987) when explaining the origins of their leadership position; ‘naval mastery, financial credit, commercial expertise, alliance diplomacy, and an expanding commercial empire.’ (Ikenberry, 2001, p. 85). In his view, post-Treaty of Paris (1783), we see an admirable ‘reconsideration of institutional possibilities’ and ‘an evolution of thinking about ways to stabilize and manage relations among the major powers.’ (Ikenberry, 2001, p. 83).

Robert Cox, regarded by some as the ‘father of critical theory of International Relations’ (Moolakkattu, 2009, p. 439) developed the ‘neo-Gramscian approach’, building on the work of Antonio Gramsci. This view widens the concept of hegemony to ‘broadly based consent, manifested in the acceptance of ideas and supported by material resources and institutions.’  (Bieler & Morton, 2004, p. 87). Cox argues that British hegemony during this period produced new political space and created a permissive environment, allowing other liberal states to develop as a result (Clark, 2011).

Ian Clark, a representative of the English School, constructs a world in which hegemony is actually an institution in the international society; something more than material strength, and something that requires other members of the society to normatively accept and ‘bestow’ (Clark, 2011). In Clark’s view, hegemony is conducive to peace if the hegemon seeks the ‘benefits of management’ without falling for ‘perils of unrestrained dominance’ (Clark, 2011, p. 46). He breezes past empire with just two paragraphs in his book, concluding that ‘Empire was to be profoundly ambivalent for British hegemony. While it is almost impossible to conceive of any plausible version of British hegemony that does not emphasize the imperial role, the empire spurred also that very competition that made its role unsustainable in the long run.’ (Clark, 2011, p. 113).

What do we learn from these viewpoints?

From this research, we can determine that there are different schools within the IR discipline that converge on a couple of key ideas:

  • Single-state hegemony is a positive thing for the world, or,

  • Single-state hegemony can be a positive thing for the world if, 

    • The state is a liberal state, and/or, 

    • The state can exercise self-restraint. 

British dominance at this time is portrayed as a harbinger of a new liberal world order; one that passes the baton seamlessly to ‘Pax Americana’ in the 20th century (Clark, 2011). All of these accounts lean into the concept of ‘Pax Britannica’ in one way or another, yet few—if any—confront the ethical implications of imperial conquest, land theft, and exploitation.

Next, I’ll highlight why these representations are not benevolent; they’re indicative of a toxic Eurocentric ignorance. They obscure colonial violence and promote imperialist views.

Why representations of ‘Pax Britannica’ are problematic

The postcolonial perspective within IR picks apart the discourse tropes that ‘reproduce truths based on European experiences’ (Wilkens, 2017) and dissects many of the terminologies and conceptual frameworks that are commonplace in the field. Postcolonial scholars tend to believe that IR has engaged in ‘abstraction and sanitization, willfully ignoring the relationship between its own intellectual canon and European imperialism.’ (Gruffydd Jones, 2006, p. 3). I tend to agree.

With this in mind, below I critique three overlapping characteristics of commonly-held views about the nineteenth century: Orientalism, Eurocentrism, and State-centrism. 

Orientalism

Orientalism, a term popularised by Edward Said, is ‘a style of thought based upon an ontological and epistemological distinction made between “the Orient” and (most of the time) “the Occident.”’ (Said, 1978, p. 10). This gives rise to discursive practices which set the ‘self’ off against the ‘other’—where this ‘Oriental other’ became fundamental to the construction of European identity, legitimised the dominant position of Europe, and contributed to justifications for imperial actions in the modern world system (Keyman, 1995; Wallerstein, 1997). 

As we saw in the previous section of this article, the same self/other dichotomy is present in casual IR discourse. For example, Jack Snyder lauds the British ability to ‘extricate themselves from quagmires on the turbulent frontier’ (Snyder, 1991, p. 158) while Stephen Krasner uses the term ‘backward’ to describe areas that were ‘opened’ by British strength during the period. 

This discursive construction of the Eastern ‘other’ is important here because, 

  • It empowered ‘civilised’ sovereign nation states such as Britain to conquer and subjugate peoples outside Europe without stretching contemporary norms;

  • It enabled the concept of the British ‘Peace’ to emerge in the first place, and; 

  • It freed later IR scholars to later engage in high-minded theoretical abstraction focusing on the ‘rationality’ of expansion, effective power-balancing, and/or the dissemination of liberalising policies vis-à-vis ‘Pax Britannica’.

Said writes that Orientalism is also a ‘Western style for dominating, restructuring, and having authority over the Orient.’ (Said, 1978, p. 11). Liberal theory on ‘Pax Britannica’ provides an example here by echoing ‘stadial theory’—a view that describes a European-led hierarchical international system ‘with a cascade of lesser political societies below.’ (Fitzmaurice, 2012, p. 122). Based on a Europeanised conception of state sovereignty, liberals were able to justify dominance of ‘inferior’ societies through empire (Fitzmaurice, 2012).

This Eurocentrism, so closely linked with Said’s Orientalism (in fact, for E. F. Keyman, Eurocentrism is ‘the precondition of the Orientalist image of the Other’) (Keyman, 1995, p. 87) takes the form of what John Hobson labels an imperialist, ‘paternalist’ Eurocentrism, whereby the West needs to ‘engage in an imperial civilizing mission in order to deliver the necessary rational institutions to the Eastern societies so as to bring to the surface their latent reason, thereby kick-starting their progressive development into modernity.’ (Hobson, 2012, p. 6).

Eurocentrism

It is true that many European liberals champion British dominance 1815-1914 and the institutions that emerged. In the process, they forget or dilute the harm of British imperial expansion in the 1800s (a driver for, and facilitator of, this new liberal economy) and ignore the uneven benefits of these systems and institutions. It is also worth stating here that capitalist growth has never been equal; it inherently favours some while impoverishing others (Krishna, 2008). And we also shouldn’t forget that ‘political compulsion of weaker nations and peoples, and military coercion over them, has always underlain so-called free trade.’ (Krishna, 2008, p. 11).

Though this idea is hotly contested, many critics have also argued that it was a conscious and calculated strategy to develop international organisations and institutions for the purpose of maintaining European dominance.

Mark Mazower, for example, discusses how Jan Smuts—twice-serving Prime Minister of South Africa—‘sought to prolong the life of an empire of white rule through international cooperation.’ (Mazower, 2009, p. 31). The vehicles for this cooperation were ‘Public International Unions’ (PIUs)—a series of conferences and conventions throughout the 1800s that were a precursor to Intergovernmental Organisations (IGOs). Since then, critics have argued that ‘universalizing rhetoric of freedom and rights’ acts as a ‘veil masking the consolidation of a great power directorate.’ (Mazower, 2009, p. 7).

John Hobson, mentioned earlier, also describes Realism’s ‘subliminal Eurocentrism’ (Hobson, 2012, p. 185) which followed the more consciously-Eurocentric Liberal Institutionalism. This has its origins in what he calls the ‘Eurocentric big-bang theory of world politics’ (Hobson, 2012, p. 186) whereby realists see the state system as being created by European ‘genius’ at Westphalia; a type of ‘civilisation’ which is then ripe for exportation to the rest of the world via imperialism and/or hegemony.

However, according to Nicolas Guilhot, despite the pertinence of decolonisation at the time of Realism’s emergence in IR (post-1945), there is a lack of engagement with empire because it was not ‘topical’ at the time; imperialism was consigned to the past and therefore not considered a central issue (Guilhot, 2014, p. 702). On a deeper level, however, Guilhot suggests that IR theory was actually struggling with history ceasing to be the history of Europe. Realism emerged as the leading paradigm in this ‘threatening’ context, characterised by a ‘rejection of all philosophies of history.’ (Guilhot, 2014, p. 699).

Put simply, as colonised peoples gained independence and claimed national sovereignty, IR theory was clinging onto ‘the capacity to understand political situations in concrete terms, that is, in terms of differentiated spacial order.’ (Guilhot, 2014, p. 700). It is this, Guilhot argues, that led to IR’s underlying—often implicit—advocacy for the continuation of empire—something he calls ‘Imperial Realism’ (Guilhot, 2014, p. 699). In this world, explicit imperialist terminology has been made more palatable by the use of phrases like American/British hegemony (Hobson, 2012, p. 186) and terms like ‘structural violence’ and ‘dependency’ (Guilhot, 2014, p. 702).

I argue that this shift in language is one factor that has enabled the valorisation and exemplification of ‘Pax Britannica’ in International Relations circles.

State-centrism

The state-centric view of Realism and Liberalism—i.e. the state as the most important international actor (James, 1989)—attracts much criticism from critical theorists. 

A general postcolonial critique is that state-centrism delegitimises non-state actors and obstructs our view of their role in international relations, and that it ignores that ‘sovereignty’ was established at Westphalia in a European-only context. Non-Western colonies were then forced to follow a ‘West-centric linear path of development that would equip them to become independent sovereign states and allow them to join their Western counterparts as members of a scientifically advanced and technologically progressive world order.’ (Pourmokhtari, 2013, p. 1179)

Furthermore, we shouldn’t forget that many non-Western nation state borders are actually inherited from colonialism (Amadife & Warhola, 1993). They were simply sketched on a map. This has undoubtedly factored into the instability and conflict that we see in the present day. Therefore, the view that all sovereign states have equality in the international system—as actors, or ‘units’ for neorealists—is flawed.

Some states are more equal than others (Evans, 1981). Some have been systematically drained of resources, while others have reaped the benefits. In fact, 28/29 of the most fragile modern nation states in the world in 2022 were either ‘established’ by imperial powers, or were wholly or partially colonised at some point in their history.

But why is State-centrism a problematic factor in representations of 1815-1914?

One answer lies in the term ‘Pax Britannica’ itself; the portrayal of this period as peaceful, civilised, and progressive (Parchami, 2009). Whether or not we accept ‘Pax’ as directly meaning ‘peace’ or more in the vein of ‘the rule of law’ or ‘internal good order of a jurisdiction subject to a common legal system’(Rodger, 2016, p. 942), this idea must be challenged.

For whom was 1815-1914 peaceful? Which peoples enjoyed the ‘good’ order of a jurisdiction during this period?

This is arguably one place where State-centrism meets Eurocentrism. Western IR scholars may define war as ‘large-scale organized violence between political units’ (Levy, 1998, p. 141) or or ‘hostilities involving the use of armed forces between States’ (Greenwood, 1987, p. 283). For Carl von Clausewitz, writing in the early-mid 1800s, war was an ‘act of force to compel our enemy to do our will.’ (von Clausewitz, 1976, p. 75).

And actually, this ‘stripped-back’ definition is quite helpful; I’d argue that IR has over-conceptualised ‘war’ in ways that are ‘trimmed to fit the international system of states’ (Barkawi, 2016, p. 207) and determined that ‘real war is interstate war between nation-states, fought between regular armed forces.’ (Barkawi, 2016, p. 199).

Representations of 1815-1914 as peaceful and stable derive from this West-oriented, state-centric, conception of war. Granted, the European powers were not at loggerheads, but this ‘peace’ contributed to their ability to conquer lands and peoples further afield (Crouzet, 1999). They may have shown ‘restraint’ in Europe—but it was not universal. And the idea that the British were ‘satisfied’, as some argue, can only relate to satisfaction with the situation on the European continent—or indeed with the imposing strength of their navy (Matzke, 2011).

A 1989 description by Muriel Chamberlain sums up both the contradictory nature of the ‘Pax’ description and the flippancy by which some historians view colonial conquest. She writes that most British wars in the nineteenth century ‘were of the remote colonial kind which Byron Farwell (1973) accurately describes as ‘Queen Victoria’s little wars’. During the long period of the so-called 'Pax Britannica', there was scarcely a year when the British army was not fighting somewhere.’ (Chamberlain, 1989, p. 9).

The critique here is eminently simple; Britain was constantly engaged in empire-related warfare between 1815-1914—from the Opium Wars of the mid 1800s, to the Boer War in southern Africa, to the consolidation of British dominance in West Africa (Falola & Roberts, 1999). This is not ‘textbook’ state-on-state warfare—meaning colonial encounters are labelled as ‘little wars’ barely worthy of a passing mention. 

We only need to remember Hans Morgenthau’s conception of these places as ‘politically empty spaces’ to know how this view has persisted for so long.

Final comments

Since IR is ‘largely silent on the imperial foundations and constitution of modern international relations’ (Gruffydd Jones, 2006, p. 4), it’s no great surprise that ‘Pax Britannica’ is so revered. For some, this is a watershed century for liberal institutionalism and international cooperation. For others, sustained British dominance is exemplary of hegemonic restraint and/or effective power-balancing. These accounts sideline the key role of empire and present us with a conception of peace and stability that is Eurocentric.

We can see a wilful amnesia (Krishna, 2001), forgetting not only the casualties of expansionist ‘little wars’ but also the victims of imperial neglect; for example, the tens of millions who died from starvation in India during British rule (Kornprobst, 2008). From the 1870s until the turn of the century, ‘European powers together partitioned 10 million square miles in Africa and governed 110 million new subjects.’ (Johnson, 2003, p. 39).

This ‘British Peace’ was not universal.

***

This essay was written by Matt Goolding in January 2023.

Many thanks to Dr. David Cadier, Assistant Professor of International Relations at the University of Groningen, for his guidance and feedback on this essay.


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